The Daily: Inside the Midterm Advertising Battle

Campaign ads as an electoral X-ray

In “The $10 Billion Midterm Ad War,” an episode of The New York Times’ The Daily, host Michael Barbaro and national political correspondent Shane Goldmacher examine the messages shaping the closing phase of the US midterms. Goldmacher describes advertising as an “X-ray” of campaigns: a concentrated view of the issues they believe resonate, the voters they need to reach and the weaknesses they fear. This article reflects the podcast’s analysis, which has not been independently corroborated here.

Democrats connect economic frustration to Republican power

Goldmacher says Democratic advertising largely asks whether voters are better off under President Donald Trump, linking groceries, fuel, healthcare and other household expenses to Republican governance. He highlights advertisements staged in supermarkets, petrol stations and pharmacies, where candidates seek to turn dissatisfaction about affordability into an argument for changing the party in power.

The episode identifies a related Democratic tactic: combining allegations of political corruption with cost-of-living concerns. Rather than merely accusing Republican candidates of serving donors or elites, these advertisements claim that such relationships have directly raised voters’ expenses. In districts where Trump is unpopular, Democrats also repeatedly cite how often Republican lawmakers vote with him.

Centrism and appeals to disillusioned Republicans

Where opposition to Trump may not be enough, the show says some Democratic candidates are presenting themselves as centrists or unconventional party figures. Goldmacher points to a Kansas Senate advertisement built around meeting “in the middle” while omitting the candidate’s Democratic affiliation. He also argues that messages about Republicans’ handling of files connected to Jeffrey Epstein are intended partly to deepen conservative voters’ disappointment with their party, potentially persuading them to abstain rather than support Democrats.

Republicans defend tax policy and stress independence

According to Goldmacher, straightforward Republican advertisements emphasise tax cuts, including provisions concerning tips and overtime, while arguing that the party needs more time to reduce costs. Candidates in competitive races are also stressing bipartisanship or disagreement with Trump. The episode cites Michigan Republican Mike Rogers opposing the tariff conflict with Canada and candidates in Iowa and Maine promoting records of working across party lines.

Goldmacher interprets such language as a signal that candidates are willing to separate themselves from Trump without always naming him. He says its appearance even in states Trump previously carried indicates a more difficult political environment for Republicans. The party’s more aggressive advertisements, meanwhile, portray Democratic opponents as too liberal or extreme, including through attacks concerning immigration, crime and transgender policy.

The risks of intensely personal attacks

The episode examines an Ohio gubernatorial advertisement featuring Democratic candidate Amy Acton’s estranged mother, who calls her daughter dishonest. According to Acton’s account as relayed by the show, they had not spoken since Acton was 12 because her mother lost custody of Acton and her brother. Goldmacher says documents supplied by Acton’s campaign showed that her stepfather had been indicted on charges of raping her. The episode states that he pleaded not guilty and fled the state before trial, so the allegation was never adjudicated.

Goldmacher says denunciations of the advertisement by fellow Republicans demonstrate how intensely personal attacks can backfire. His broader assessment is that Democrats have the simpler advertising story because they can channel dissatisfaction with those in power, while Republicans must persuade voters to treat the election as a comparison between candidates rather than a referendum on their party.