Ukraine’s battlefield vulnerability and Europe’s strategic dilemma

A conversation from Oslo

In episode 581 of The Rest Is Politics, “Trump and Putin vs. Zelensky: Is Europe Sleepwalking into Disaster?”, hosts Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell speak from Oslo, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was also visiting. They focus on Ukraine’s deteriorating position, Europe’s dependence on the United States, unrest in France and an attack involving an Australian politician. This account reflects the hosts’ conversation and has not been independently corroborated.

Ukraine’s technological dependence comes into focus

The hosts describe an intense wave of Russian attacks, citing hundreds of drones, strikes on power plants and widespread electricity outages. They argue, however, that the week’s defining issue was political and technological: Ukraine’s continued dependence on US satellites and intelligence for long-range operations and for detecting incoming attacks. Stewart says American systems were effectively restricted, while noting that Donald Trump and Elon Musk denied a shutdown; the programme presents subsequent reporting as supporting Ukraine’s concerns, but that reporting is not independently assessed in the episode.

Campbell and Stewart interpret these developments as evidence that Trump is applying pressure on Zelensky rather than merely asking Europe to shoulder more defence spending. They repeatedly argue that Trump favours an outcome advantageous to Vladimir Putin, while acknowledging uncertainty around motives, private meetings and what may happen next in negotiations.

Can Europe reduce its reliance on Washington?

A central disagreement concerns how openly European leaders should confront the United States. Campbell stresses the immediate need to keep Washington engaged while supporting Zelensky. Stewart argues that Europe must also pursue a coordinated, long-term effort to reduce dependencies in satellites, missile systems, artificial intelligence and other critical technologies—even if doing so carries financial and diplomatic costs.

The hosts point to emerging cooperation among Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom and European partners, but question whether individual defence deals are enough. Their preferred direction is a more systematic “middle powers” strategy that protects European sovereignty while preserving the postwar ideals of peace, stability and democratic cooperation.

France’s unrest defies a simple explanation

Turning to France, the hosts describe extensive rioting, looting and damage across several cities. Campbell says the unrest appears less politically coherent than the protests of 1968, with students, far-left and far-right groups, football hooligans and people from disadvantaged suburbs allegedly becoming involved. The discussion also relays competing claims about policing, without resolving whether officers acted too forcefully, too slowly or both at different stages.

They warn that the disorder may deepen political polarisation and be exploited through racist commentary, misinformation and selective overseas coverage. At the same time, they connect the unrest to unresolved economic pressures, public-service decline and the exclusion felt by people who do not share in France’s prosperity.

Australia confronts risks to public life

The episode closes with an account of Australian independent MP Helen Haines suffering life-changing injuries after being struck by a vehicle. The hosts say the driver’s actions appeared deliberate, but emphasise that the motivation was unknown and that speculation based on social-media posts would be premature. They use the incident to discuss threats faced by politicians, particularly women, and the potential deterrent effect on people considering public service.